DTN Closing Cotton            07/07 13:32

   Cotton Plunges Lower

   The cotton market was materially lower amid possible trade deal 
disappointments, less weather threats and a strong U.S. dollar. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market was materially lower amid possible trade deal 
disappointments, less weather threats and a strong U.S. dollar. Traders were 
hoping that President Trump's Iowa speech would offer greater clarity as to a 
future trade deal with China, but it was not even mentioned. Then generally 
speaking, growing conditions across the U.S. Cotton Belt look favorable. 
Lastly, the strong jobs data of Thursday suggests that the Federal Reserve will 
be in no hurry to lower interest rates.

   Today at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will issue its Commitment of Traders 
Report. Last week, the data showed that the managed-money funds had bought in 
some 2,900 positions, reducing their net-short carry to some 48,000 contracts.

   Also, today at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will update its crop progress and condition 
numbers. Last week's reading showed the 2025 crop was 95% planted and was rated 
at 51% good to excellent.

   This Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, USDA will release its weekly export sales 
data. Last week's business showed sales for the expiring old crop season were 
23,700, while sales for the new crop were 106,000. Weekly shipments were 
255,800 bales, up 39%.

   There were zero notices issued today against Spot July cotton. Thus far, 
there have been a total of 226 notices tendered. Its delivery period ends on 
July 9.

   The 6-to-10-day weather outlook (July 12-16) shows most of the U.S. Cotton 
Belt with slightly-above normal temperatures. Rain-wise, most of the U.S. 
Cotton Belt looks to have slightly-above to above normal precipitation 
opportunities.

   For Monday, December 2025 closed at 67.89 cents, minus 57 points; while 
March 2026 settled at 69.26 cents, off 52 points. Monday's estimated volume was 
33,685 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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