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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          11/25 07:51

   Cotton Lower on COVID, Exports

   The cotton market is lower Friday, suffering from low holiday volume, Black 
Friday nervousness, increased Chinese COVID troubles and poor export sales.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is lower Friday, suffering from low holiday volume, Black 
Friday nervousness, increased Chinese COVID troubles and poor export sales. The 
market will close early Friday at 1:30 p.m. EST; trading volume will be light 
and price moves likely exaggerated.

   Friday is Black Friday, the traditional post-Thanksgiving shopping day, but 
apparently the U.S. will tote the bale alone as Europe's economy is mired down 
with the Ukraine-Russian war. In the U.S., reporters form the business channels 
are strategically placed through the country to give live reports as to the 
pace of domestic sales.

   China continues to suffer from massive COVID lockdowns. The capital, 
Beijing, is reportedly two-thirds in lockdown. The lockdowns are also extended 
to many other Chinese cities. Some 20% of the total Chinese GDP is being 
restricted. To that end, the Chinese central bank is infusing new monies into 
the system.

   We reported that the CFTC's commitment-of-trades data would be out Friday. 
We were incorrect; that report will be released on Monday.

   USDA reported its delayed weekly exports-sales Friday morning. The report 
showed that net sales reductions of 116,400 RB for 2022/2023 resulting in 
increases for India (7,500 RB), Indonesia (2,600 RB), Turkey (1,200 RB, 
including decreases of 1,700 RB), Taiwan (1,100 RB), and Mexico (400 RB), were 
more than offset by reductions for China (109,500 RB), Pakistan (15,400 RB), El 
Salvador (4,500 RB), and Peru (400 RB).  Net sales of 12,300 RB for 2023/2024 
were reported for Turkey (11,000 RB) and Pakistan (1,300 RB).  Exports of 
143,700 RB were primarily to China (70,700 RB), Pakistan (24,200 RB), Turkey 
(15,600 RB), Mexico (10,500 RB), and Taiwan (6,400 RB).  Net sales of Pima 
totaling 5,200 RB were reported for China (3,700 RB), Egypt (700 RB), Vietnam 
(400 RB), Indonesia (300 RB), and Japan (100 RB).  Exports of 3,300 RB were 
primarily to Egypt (900 RB), Peru (900 RB), Thailand (900 RB), and Djibouti 
(400 RB).

   Next week, traders will see data on Consumer Confidence, plus Third Quarter 
GDP numbers. Those reports will likely set the tone into the Federal Reserve's 
December meeting.

   Friday, support for March cotton stands at 7950 cents and 7860 cents with 
resistance at 8400 cents and 8480 cents. Friday morning's estimated volume is 
1,520 contracts.  

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




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