DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/24 11:36

   Wheat, Corn Higher at Midday

   Corn has extended the bounce to begin the week, while beans have remained 
red since the opening last night to midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 150. The 
interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 15 lower. Energies are 
firmer with crude up 1.40, unleaded up 4 cents and ethanol mixed. Livestock 
trade is weaker with only nearby hogs firmer. Precious metals are mixed with 
gold up $2. 

   CORN

   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with trade firmer after seeing 
two-sided trade overnight. Mother Nature is providing some wet harvest 
conditions which are noted slowing harvest progress in many areas, with a few 
spots moving along quickly. Ethanol margins remain tight with production likely 
to fade near term due to the higher corn and lack of upside movement in 
ethanol. Crude and RBOB are firmer so blender margins continue to look good. 
Corn basis will likely see more pressure harvest here in the near term but 
delays could limit pressure. The weekly export inspections were strong at 1.263 
million metric tons. The weekly crop progress should show steady conditions, 
above average maturity, and harvest close to average. On the December chart 
futures support moved above the 10-day, at $3.52, on Friday then 20-day at 3.58 
today which are our support levels at midday. Resistance is at the $3.67 1/2 
50-day then the $3.69 3/4 1-month higher. 

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade up 3 to 5 from the 
early lows. China trade issues flaring up again in the news over the weekend as 
tariffs take effect. Meal is $1.50 lower, and oil is 35 to 45 points higher at 
midday. Soybean basis remains historically wide across the belt with storage 
and shipping concerns continuing to dominate with the recent uptick in fresh 
sales needing to be sustained with another 162,000 metric tons announced this 
morning. Crush margins remain strong with oil starting to show broader 
strength. Early planting in South America is underway with conditions on the 
dry side going in but no major concerns expected at this juncture. The 
Brazilian and Argentine currencies remain historically cheap. China lowered 
tariffs on neighboring countries which could offer some more work-a-rounds on 
trade with US/China trade talk progress remaining at a standstill. The weekly 
crop progress is expected to show steady conditions, ahead of normal maturity 
and average harvest progress. The weekly export inspections were in line with 
recent weeks at 693,860 metric tons. On the November chart support is the 
20-day at $8.37 with the 10-day below that at $8.34, with resistance the recent 
high at $8.55. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday with with the weaker dollar and 
world prices adding support. Trade was unable to extend the early morning 
strength though. The US dollar is at the bottom of the recent range but firmer 
this morning. Russia will continue to work on spring wheat harvest and winter 
wheat planting with little change in the weather patterns, with harvest in 
Canada impacted by snow as well. Australia looks to continue the recent weather 
pattern with more feed grain imports possible. The weekly export inspections 
remained in line with recent weeks at 409,452 metric tons. The weekly crop 
progress is expected to show spring wheat harvest complete, and winter wheat 
planting near average. On the December Kansas City chart, we have support at 
the 10-day at $5.19 with resistance at the 200-day at $5.43. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.  
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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